Hard facts #2 on Covid science denial . . .

The Scientific Approach . . .

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By Jim Bowman


The Scientific Approach

 States like Florida and Texas managed C-19 by focusing on the vulnerable and giving healthy people more flexibility to live their lives. This strategy is rooted in the following scientific facts:

  • Younger people are far less likely to die from C-19 than the common hazards of life for which governments don't lock them down:
  • Since the outset of the pandemic on March 11 through July 25, merely 1.0% of all deaths of U.S. children aged 5–14 years have involved C-19. Among 15–24 year olds, this figure is only 1.7%, and among 25–34 year olds, it is just 3.9%.
  • People under age 49 who catch C-19 and show symptoms are about 26 times less likely to die of it than those aged 65 and older. 
  • Because C-19 is highly contagious, it will ultimately spread if lockdowns are relaxed in the absence of vaccines or herd immunity, regardless of whether states open "early" or not:
  • Even the Imperial College, which provided the impetus for mass lockdowns, admitted that the "more successful a strategy is at temporary suppression, the larger the later epidemic is predicted to be in the absence of vaccination, due to lesser build-up of herd immunity."
  • The explicit goal of lockdowns was to "flatten the curve" and "slow the spread" of the virus so that cases would "stretch out across a longer period of time" and not "overwhelm" hospitals. This is illustrated by the widely cited "flatten the curve" charts, which show that lockdowns don't reduce the number of people who catch the virus but extend the timeframe over which they catch it.
  • Second waves of infections are not limited to Republican states that opened "early" but have occurred in places like California (a heavily Democratic state that has barely loosened its lockdown), SpainFranceIsrael, and Australia.
  • Absent a vaccine, the only way for people to become immune to C-19 is to catch the virus and recover. A 2012 paper in the journal PLoS One about "Immunity in Society" explains that once a high enough percentage of the population has become immune, an "immune firewall" is created, preventing further transmission to those who are vulnerable.
  • Lockdowns cause enormous suffering and death via consequences like unemployment, social isolation, delayed medical care, depression, and anxiety:
  • The United Nations reported that C-19 lockdowns are creating lethal mental health problems through an array of mechanisms like separating people "from loved ones" and "vast numbers" of lost livelihoods.
  • 2011 meta-analysis in the journal Social Science & Medicine found that "unemployment is associated with a substantially increased risk of death among broad segments of the population."
  • Government-mandated and personal decisions to delay medical care because of C-19 have postponed tumor removals, cancer screeningsheart surgeries, and treatments for other ailments that can lead to early death if not addressed in a timely manner.
  • To quantify just one element of the death tradeoff for lockdowns, Just Facts conducted a rigorous study that found anxiety related to C-19 will destroy at least seven times more years of life than can possibly be saved by lockdowns. After reviewing this study, the accomplished psychiatrist Joseph P. Damore, Jr. concluded that it "thoroughly answers the question about the cure being worse than the disease." 

Republican states that crafted their C-19 policies around the scientific facts above have drastically lower death rates than the oft-praised states of New York and New Jersey.

Again, this association does not prove that Republican governors managed the virus better than their Democratic counterparts. However, it is flagrantly deceitful to report that Republican states "peddle denial," put "the economy over health," or failed "the Covid-19 test," when in fact, their death rates are extremely low, and their actions align with crucial scientific facts.

Email: jimbowman7@aol.com Twitter: @BlitheSp

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